Analytic websites predict the Arkansas Basketball season
What do some of college basketball's advanced metric gurus think of the Razorbacks?
Life is full of gut-check moments. If you do things right, every scraped knee, broken heart, and missed opportunity offers a chance to adjust your schema and take away life lessons.
A maxim I had to internalize early in life was that I would not always be the smartest guy in the room, and knowing Kyle Reynolds helped expedite that learning process. My ego would have run rampant had I not met Kyle so early in life. Kyle (and all my friends since) taught me that if I was the most intelligent guy in a room, I was in the wrong room.
When one of those friends mentioned above (our dear, sweet Blake, a loyal reader) asked me about my expectations for the basketball team, I wasn’t happy with my answer. It was boilerplate, coachspeak, 10k foot-view nonsense.
When we do our basketball deep dive ahead of SEC play, I will write more about how I think the Razorback basketball team will fare heading into conference play. For now, let’s hear what the basketball math nerds have to say.
What EvanMiya thinks about the Razorbacks
I’ll get this out of the way immediately: none of the three metric websites we’re discussing today are super high on the Hogs. Evan Miya is relatively the highest, though. Their prediction metric has the Razorbacks finishing 22-9 (10-8) during John Calipari’s first season at the helm in Fayetteville.
EvanMiya predicts a roller coaster season for the Hogs. The season starts with a favorable run, going 12-1 in nonconference play, including winning 11 straight games.
Conference play is expected to be more up and down. The Hogs will go 1-2 in their first three games before ripping off four straight wins against LSU, Missouri, Georgia, and Oklahoma. They’ll follow that up with three straight losses while basically ping-ponging the rest of the way.
What KenPom thinks about the Razorbacks
While KenPom is certainly not low on the Hogs (ranked 25th in college basketball in the initial ratings), that rating won’t translate to a super high number of wins given the depth of the SEC. Five teams rank ahead of the Hogs: Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Texas.
Coincidentally, KenPom’s season predictions has Arkansas going 1-5 against those six teams on the way to a 21-10 (10-8) season for Coach Cal’s squad. It is worth noting that the metric considers four of the projected conference losses to be toss-ups. Four games in the other direction would be a huge swing.
What Haslametrics thinks about the Razorbacks
And here come these guys to rain on the parade. Haslametrics thinks it will be a rough season for Arkansas basketball, with a 15-16 (5-13) campaign for Calipari and the Hogs.
In this model, Arkansas loses to Baylor, Illinois, and Miami in nonconference and only picks up conference wins against Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU, and Missouri. This prediction also has the Hogs losing the final four games of the regular season against Texas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State.
Even with that record, the website states that “Arkansas is a good team that can cause more than enough trouble for most opponents.” Will the Hogs be troublesome, or will they win ball games?
What conclusions can we draw?
It’s been a while since I’ve hit you with a good bullet-point list, so here are a few interesting takeaways from all three metrics in that format:
All three have Arkansas winning tonight’s season opener against Lipscomb
All three have Arkansas losing to Baylor
All three have Arkansas beating Michigan
All three have Calipari losing to Kentucky in his return to Rupp
All three have Arkansas beating Georgia and Oklahoma
Average finish: 19-12
Like everyone else, even these metrics websites are taking shots in the dark up to this point because everything is new in Arkansas. If Calipari can put things together quickly, I could see Arkansas overplaying the projected finishes listed here. If it takes a while to come together, finishing around that average number would make some sense.
My gut says all three are off. I don’t think this is a 28-win team, but I feel something closer to 25 is more likely—just my two cents.
Not that I’m the smartest guy in the room or anything.
I like Calipari and think he will put a good team on the floor nigh in and night out.
I further believe that your gut feeling is probably spot on.
I’m looking forward to the season for the first time in years.
I really enjoy you and Kyle’s takes on the Hogs and the entertaining incredible research that comes with it.
Let the good times roll.
WPS !