How Arkansas can steal a few more wins

Razorback Reels for Kentucky, Texas, and Alabama explores how to make Arkansas's strength even stronger

If you’re feeling pessimistic about what’s left of the 2024-2025 basketball season for John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks, then this article isn’t for you. Well, actually, maybe it’s exactly for you, but we all know how things go on the internet these days. We all craft our little echo chambers and turtle shell up inside of them.

Despite the difficult loss against Alabama (and we’ll see plenty of clips that show the weaknesses defensively in that contest), there were still positives that Calipari and the Razorbacks should make the foundation of how they build a tournament-caliber resume to close out the season.

I hate calling something a moral victory because I don’t believe such a thing exists. However, unlike some of the loud voices covering the Razorbacks, I do believe you can take positives away from a loss. (I work in education. It’s literally my job to teach, and you best believe mistakes are a great way to learn.)

Submitted for the approval of the Sunshine Pumpers Society, I call this story How Arkansas Can Steal a Few More Wins.

Let’s roll the tape!

Where things fell apart against the Tide

To put it succinctly, Arkansas was terrible in point-of-attack defense Saturday against Alabama. The Hogs had no answer for Alabama’s lead guards, and possessions like the following were commonplace.

If this looks familiar, it should. This possession ended exactly the way Calipari hopes his dribble drive possessions would end. Alabama got to the rim before Karter Knox slid over to help. By that time, it was too late. The Tide passed right around the help for an easy dunk.

Here’s another example:

It’s never a good look when two consecutive screens completely breaks your defense, but that is exactly what happened on this possession. Nelly Davis did not look like he expected the second one and got totally lost on the switch, which left a wide-open path to the basket for Alabama.

One more for good measure and to show it wasn’t just one guy destroying the Hogs.

It doesn’t matter if your team plays superb defense for 28 straight seconds if the two that follow it are a disaster. That’s precisely what happened on this possession. Alabama was scrambling, so they pulled out a trick that worked all game long. Alabama ran a dribble handoff, and the big quickly slipped the screen and rolled toward the basket. Trevon Brazile was up at the level of the screen while D.J. Wagner trailed the play. If two guys guard one man, that means another is wide open. Alabama found that open guy and punished the Hogs before they could recover.

Steals are the great equalizer

Arkansas has 27 steals over the last three games for an average of nine steals per contest. For context, the Hogs averaged just six steals per game in the seven SEC games before the Kentucky game on February 1st. If you’re asking yourself, “Is three more steals per game really making that much more of a difference,” remember that steals can often lead to plays like this one:

Sure, that steal just leads to one bucket, but there are two things to consider here. First, two points can be huge as SEC games get tight down the stretch, with everyone competing for tournament spots. Second, there is no denying the momentum shift that plays like this create.

Speaking of this play, it’s a fascinating one to consider. In my head, it is the platonic ideal of a steal in basketball. A defender along the perimeter gets aggressive in the passing lane and coasts in for an easy bucket.

This brings me to a bit of an exercise I want to try with you. (I’m a teacher, remember…)

I want you to pause before you go any further and predict where on the floor you think most of these steals are happening. Are they forced in the defensive backcourt because the Razorbacks are applying some full-court pressure? Are they, like the Billy Richmond one above, being forced along the perimeter by ball-hawking guards and wings? Somewhere else?

Solidify your hypothesis.

If, like me, you assumed the perimeter, you’d be wrong.

When I went back and re-watched every Arkansas steal over the last three games, almost 65 percent of them came in and very close to the painted area. While the Richmond steal is an absolute banger of a highlight, most of Arkansas’s steals look like this:

Or like this:

Or like this:

For the Razorbacks, steals are much more of a rim-protection asset than a perimeter defense one. Adou Thiero’s came by fronting the post and providing help when Wagner got beat off-the-dribble. Trevon Brazile’s came by helping on a Texas big in the restricted area and getting a clean swipe at the basketball. Zvonimir Ivisic’s steal came by providing help on a driving Alabama guard and relying on his length to prevent the guard from dumping the ball to his teammate.

Key Takeaways

Arkansas’s inability to effectively neutralize Alabama’s lead guards was the single most important factor in the loss on Saturday. If you believe that the Hogs need to win four of their final eight games to get to the NCAA Tournament (and, yes, it’s fair to feel like the season is a disappointment if the Razorbacks don’t go dancing), you might start looking at the remaining schedule wondering how we match up.

A few teams have a talented, ball-dominant guard who could give the Razorbacks fits. Texas A&M obviously comes to mind, but the Razorbacks shouldn’t overlook LSU, Mississippi State, Texas or Vanderbilt either. All five teams are beatable but have guards that can punish Arkansas’s perimeter defense.

Arkansas must keep the percentage of paint steals high to win those games. And, assuming Arkansas beats South Carolina and loses to Auburn, the Razorbacks will probably need to win at least three of those games.