Nelly Davis has been going with the flow
Razorback Reels explores how the Arkansas guard has improved three-point percentage the last month
Let’s kick off this Sunday’s edition of Razorback Reels by watching this Nelly Davis three-point attempt from early in the Baylor game on November 9th. As you watch, ask yourself what you notice.
I’ll tell you what I see, starting with the most obvious thing: he misses it. That wasn’t uncommon for Davis through the season's first five games. From Lipscomb through Little Rock, Davis shot just 4-19 (21.1 percent) from three-point range. That’s a far cry from the 41 percent he shot from deep last season with Florida Atlantic.
I’ll tell you what else I notice. While this is a late-in-the-shot clock attempt off a loose ball he scoops up, Davis also didn’t do himself any favors regarding shot difficulty by putting the ball on the floor and taking a step-back jumper from the corner.
This clip from the Baylor game is a microcosm of Davis’s first five contests in a Hog uniform. Yes, he was (Is? He did miss yesterday’s game with a “tender wrist”) recovering from an injury, but there was also a frenetic, forcing-the-issue flavor to his shot selection. I’m not judging him for it. That’s a natural reaction to limited practice with a new team.
The good news for Hog fans is that Davis has flipped the script over the last seven games. Since the Maryland Eastern Shore contest on November 25th, Davis is shooting 53 percent from three on thirty attempts.
So what’s led to the positive change, and what patterns do we notice that might increase his efficiency even more?
Let’s roll the tape!
Davis needs to play a team game
That Baylor clip works on many levels because it also demonstrates an important maxim for Davis’s time in an Arkansas uniform: he is shooting much better when he gets shot attempts off a pass rather than off the dribble.
It’s a small sample size, but Davis has not been shooting it well off the dribble this season. A lot of his off-the-dribble shots look like this:
No one would argue that this transition opportunity is a bad shot, but there were some pretty clear reasons he missed. First, he’s not really filling the lane correctly, which puts him closer to coverage when he catches the ball. More importantly, the pump fake and dribble take him out of his rhythm.
Here’s a transition example from the Thanksgiving Day game against Illinois.
Yet again, there is just enough hesitation—just a hair here—between getting from the dribble move to the shot attempt to throw Davis off.
It happens in the halfcourt offense as well.
Davis runs a dribble handoff with Trevon Brazile before taking a relatively well-contested step-back from the top of the key. Just before the shot attempt, there’s a slight gathering motion, with his feet moving to the right. And wouldn’t you know it…slightly to the right is precisely how he missed the shot.
Hog fans shouldn’t be mad at any of these shot attempts. Again, none of them on an individual level are bad shots for a good shooter. This is an “even better if” not some glaring hole in his game. He’s not hitting shots off the dribble at as efficient a clip as he could be.
Especially when compared to how he’s doing off potential assists.
Davis is on fire when he limits hesitation
Since November 25th, Davis has been knocking down 56 percent of his three-point opportunities when they come on a potential assist. He has been straight up on fire in catch-and-shoot attempts because he’s not hesitating.
There are some key differences between this transition opportunity and the ones in the previous section. First off, it’s Boogie Fland, and not Davis, who has the ball in his hands pushing up the floor. Second, Davis fills the lane well and gets to open floor. Third, there’s no hesitation. Fland delivers the ball perfectly, and Davis immediately goes into the shooting motion on the catch.
Davis has been dynamite from every zone beyond the arc in the halfcourt. If Davis has his eyes on playing at the next level, he’ll need to convert a ton of corner threes like this one, a staple of modern NBA basketball:
If you subscribe to the philosophy that NBA basketball is one cookie-cutter offense after another, then a play like this one is a chocolate chip. The ballhandler (Fland) dribble penetrates and tilts the defense enough to draw a help defender. When that help comes, he kicks out to a shooter. Davis’s lack of hesitation allows him to get the shot off before the defense can rotate.
While the corner three is a must for modern shooters, it’s Davis's ability to knock down shots from the wing, slot, and top of the key makes him an even more important weapon for a John Calipari-coached club. You can put him all over the floor in the dribble-drive motion offense and expect good results.
Key Takeaways
If you only take away one thing from today’s Razorback Reels, I hope it’s the following. Davis has settled in and has been shooting lights out for about a month. As each separate musician gets more adept at their particular instrument, this band of Razorback Hogs gets closer and closer to headline act status.
It’s got to be a tough pill to swallow, but Davis isn’t the frontman with this Razorback squad. He has to be more of an off-ball player on this roster. That’s not a bad thing for him, though. I don’t project him to be a lead ballhandler at the next level, but every team in the league wants dudes who are plus defenders and shoot nearly 40 percent from three. That’s his pathway to a payday.
The more comfortable Davis has gotten with Fland and DJ Wagner handling most of the facilitation duties, the higher his three-point shooting percentage has risen. The win-win of it is that his draft stock and Arkansas’s tournament expectations will continue to rise too.