SEC Basketball Conference Preview Predictions
Kyle and Max make a round of predictions as the SEC basketball slate begins
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Player of the Year
Max - Johni Broome, Auburn
This one feels pretty clear-cut to me. He’s the best player on the best team in the conference. That will usually do it.
The counting stats love him, as he’s currently fourth in points per game, first in rebounds, and first in blocks. He averages a double-double. Dude is just getting it done.
The analytics love him, too. EvanMiya’s metric currently has him as the most impactful player in college basketball.
Someone is going to have to go nuts to win this over him.
Kyle - Mark Sears, Alabama
After leading Alabama to its first final four appearance in school history, folks in Tuscaloosa were pleasantly surprised when Senior guard Mark Sears decided to flex his extra Covid-year of eligibility and come back to play for the Tide again.
He’s currently averaging 18 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1 steal per game. But last season his production really picked up in conference play; so these numbers should be considered the floor rather than the ceiling.
The most amazing thing about Sears in his career is how much better he plays on the road. This season he’s averaging 5 points per game more when playing away from Tuscaloosa. Great players step up when their team needs them the most.
Coach of the Year
Max - Porter Moser, Oklahoma
Bruce Pearl would be the obvious choice here, but Auburn being at the top of the conference isn’t anything unexpected. Most pre-season predictions had them in the top tier of SEC basketball clubs.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, was projected to finish 15th at SEC Media Days. I have them surprising people and finishing tied for fourth in the conference.
Chris Jans from Mississippi State could be in a similar boat based on my predictions, but Moser’s coaching job would be even more surprising.
Kyle - Todd Golden, Florida
While I wanted to say John Calipari would win his 10th Conference Coach of the Year Award in his career in his first year at Arkansas, the data simply doesn’t support him getting enough conference wins this year to be in contention.
I’m projecting Todd Golden to have Florida finish with the third best record in conference play. This comes in only his third season at the helm when they were predicted to finish sixth in the SEC.
Florida has been relatively quiet since the Billy Donavan left outside of the 2016-2017 team that made an NCAA tournament run and racked up 27 wins. Things may be heating up in the swamp for the Gators to return to glory.
Regular Season Champ
Max - Auburn Tigers
If I were to put the conference into four tiers, I think it would go something like this:
Tier 1
Auburn
Tennessee
Tier 2
Arkansas
Oklahoma/Mississippi State
Alabama
Tier 3
Ole Miss
Texas
Florida/Kentucky
Texas A&M (I think this will be the last year for Buzz Williams with the Aggies, FWIW)
Tier 4
Missouri
Georgia/LSU
Vanderbilt/South Carolina (absolutely brutal schedule for the Gamecocks)
There could be movement within the tiers, but that will generally be the divide. Thus, I have only two real options for winning the conference: Auburn or Tennessee.
Per KenPom, Auburn is currently the best team in the country by a decent margin. There is a bigger net rating difference between Auburn and the second place team (Duke), than there is between Duke and the sixth place team (Florida, surprisingly).
I’ll also add this: my win/loss prediction probably gives Arkansas too much credit. I just really like this team and think they have a favorable schedule.
Kyle - Auburn Tigers
Max is much more into basketball analytics than me, but I decided to follow his instincts with my season predictions this year. The SEC field is as tough as any conference I’ve ever seen. Here are just a few of the wild metrics so far in the non-conference portion of the season:
The SEC currently has 10 teams ranked in the top 24.
All 16 SEC teams already have double-digit wins. For perspective, the ACC has 12/18 teams, Big 12 has 5/16, and Big East has 5/11.
The SEC is currently a combined 185-23 (88.9% winning percentage). The Big Ten is at 76.4%, Big 12 at 71.9%, Big East at 65.6%, and ACC at 62.6%.
Currently all 16 SEC teams are slated to make the NCAA tournament according to KenPom Ratings.
So it’s going to be close. I really think any team could get hot and win the regular season or SEC tournament.
However, this Auburn team is just built different. In fact, Aubrun’s KenPom Rating of +36.58 net rating is the highest a team has ever had at this point in the season. Ever. They have 6 Quad 1 wins. No one else has more than 4.
Earlier this season, Head Coach Bruce Pearl said, “You want the good news? Auburn basketball could be one of the top 30 programs in the country this year. We could also finish 10th in the league…”
I hope I’m wrong and the Hogs end up on top, but I think it’s going to be a tough rest of the year given the strength of the SEC from top-to-bottom.
Tournament Champ
Max - Arkansas Razorbacks
Speaking of overvaluing the Razorbacks…
John Calipari has been incredibly successful at the SEC tournament. During his time at Kentucky, he won it six times.
What will be fascinating to see is if it was Calipari’s coaching prowess or Kentucky’s nomad-like fanbase that gave him an edge previously. In fact, I’m so convinced that Cal vs Kentucky will be the most fascinating storyline in Nashville that I predict Arkansas vs Kentucky will be the championship game matchup. Calipari has the better team and brings Arkansas their second SEC Tournament Title, bumping his squad up a seed line in the Big Dance in the process.
Kyle - Texas A&M Aggies
I don’t love the Aggies. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Texas A&M has made the list of schools that my wife and I have joked we wouldn’t let our kids attend even if they got free tuition.
They’re just weird, man. And in a weird way Buzz Williams has found a perfect home for his quirky vests and halftime wardrobe changes.
I’ve been high on Wade Taylor, IV the past few years, and he continues to drop buckets in high volume. They have made deep SEC tournament runs the past two seasons, and I predict this year they get over the hump and as much as I hate to type it, take home the trophy.
Full Record Predictions
