Odds Are v24.6
Road Trips, Finance Bros, Hot in Here, Debates, College World Series, and Losing at Home
It’s time for the latest installment in my Odds Are series where we look at statistics and probabilities in sports and the world around us.
It’s now officially summer. The days are longer. Schedules are a little off. And here I am getting my article out a day late. But I hope you still enjoy it.
1. Odds Are you’ll be traveling this summer. On August 5, it’ll mark the 136th anniversary of the first ever road trip. That’s when Bertha Benz, co-inventor of the first horseless carriage, got frustrated with her husband for not better marketing their invention and loaded up her children and took a 66 mile trip through the German countryside to promote the first automobile. And we’ve been traveling ever since.
In 2023, US travelers spent $1.3 trillion, which supports more than 15 million US jobs associated with travel. Earlier this month TSA screened a record 2.9 million airline passengers in a single day. And for the summer, the US is expecting 212 million people to take a trip via either plane, train, or automobile.
The average American is predicted to spend $2,800 on their summer vacation this year. And while I’ve written in the past about inflation and the cost of food and housing, you should note that the average price of gasoline at $3.12 is actually a pretty good deal.
The chart below shows the price of gasoline adjusted for inflation through 2022. And as my first boss, Chesapeake’s Aubrey McClendon used to remind us, even when prices at the pump seem high, gasoline is still the cheapest liquid you can buy at a gas station (milk = ~$4.00/gallon, Coke = ~$14.60/gallon, water = ~$9.60/gallon).
2. Odds Are you don’t meet the criteria for this year’s latest craze: Finance Bro Summer. When rapper Megan Thee Stallion released her hit single Hot Girl Summer in 2019 it created a 5 year craze where women were empowered to be confident, have fun, and only care about themselves (not what others thought of them).
Well back of the line, Hot Girl Summers, thanks to the viral TikTok video, it’s now time for Finance Bros to shine. The 27-year-old Megan Boni’s video has been viewed more than 50 million times and says “I’m looking for a man in finance. Trust fund. 6’5.” Blue eyes.”
While 49.5% of Americans are male and 27% of Americans have blue eyes, only 5% of men work in the finance industry. Even worse for those ladies seeking this modern knight in shining armor is the fact that only 1.7% of Americans receive an inheritance from a trust fund and 0.17% of Americans are 6’5” or taller.
Stay confident ladies. Believe in yourselves, not this mythical man.
3. Odds Are you’ve already started complaining about the summer heat. The world continues to grapple with the effects of global warming (or climate change or seasonal variations in localized weather patterns depending on your political views). There’s simply no arguing that it’s hot outside. Today in NWA, the heat index hit 104 degrees (that’s 17 degrees above average).
And it’s not just an Arkansas heat problem. I was in Boston last week for work expecting some nice summertime 70s. Nope, record highs in the mid-to-upper 90s. It was hotter there than in Arkansas. On May 16, Key West, Florida hit an all time high of 115 degrees. And last week, the temps hit 125 degrees in Mexico (the highest temperature ever recorded in the entire country).
Oh, and we are only a week into summer, so it will likely get worse. Speaking of heating up…
4. Odds Are the war between NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple to be the world’s most valuable company is only just getting started. In August 2018, Apple became the first company valued at $1 trillion. Now there are 6 companies with a valuation that high. And 3 of them are 3 times that value.
On almost a daily cadence over the past 10 trading days, Microsoft and Apple were bouncing back and forth around $3.3 trillion as the most valuable company. Then on June 18th for the first time ever, chip-making-darling NVIDIA took the crown.
But hopefully, all you Finance Bros knew to pull some chips off the table and sell while NVIDIA was at an all-time high. It closed today down almost 7%.
If not investing in stocks, you might be like 7% of Americans that own crypto currencies, and I found this chart interesting. The wealthy seem to be keeping their money in real estate and the stock market rather than chasing overnight crypto success.
5. Odds Are we will see some fireworks a week before Independence Day with the first Presidential Debate set for June 27th. This will mark the earliest debate in US history and the format allows for no audience and requires the candidates’ mics to be muted unless it is their respective turn to speak.
There’s not much margin for error with FiveThirtyEight showing one of the tightest races ever, with Joe Biden holding a 0.1% lead.
Even if Americans are torn on who to vote for, according to a Washington Post column, they can at least agree on their favorite genre of music: Classic Rock. Even at only 15% of Democrats choosing it as a favorite, it still heavily outranks all other genres.
The most polarizing music on the other hand seems to be between the love of Country and Rap with Republicans and older voters heavily aligning with the former and Democrats and younger voters aligning with the latter.
For the betterment of America, hopefully the media will just mute both candidates and play Baba O’Riley by The Who on repeat for 90 minutes. Let’s get unified, folks. We aren’t that different.
6. Odds Are an SEC team will be the winner of the College World Series. Okay, enough with the dad jokes. Tennessee is favored by 1.5 points heading into tonights College World Series Championship Game 3. The money line sits at -230 for Tennessee.
Tennessee began the season at 14/1 odds to win it all and Texas A&M was at 20/1 odds. So anyone willing to bet baseball futures is sitting on a nice coupon to cash in.
It’s honestly hard to root for either of these teams, but at least I can sleep well knowing regardless of outcome this will be the SEC’s 5th straight national championship in baseball. It’s also the 7th in the past 10 years and 10th in the past 15 years. Now that’s dominance.
7. Odds Are it will be a few years before a former Arkansas Razorbacks basketball player wins an NBA Championship. Last week when the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks, Jordan Walsh became only the 7th former Hog to win an NBA title. He joins Moses Moody (‘22), Bobby Portis (‘21), Corliss Williamson (‘04), Joe Klein (‘98), Darryl Walker (‘93), and Scott Hastings (‘90).
That’s an overall pace of having a Hog win every 11 years but the cluster of 3 out of the past 4 and the increased recruiting of the Musselman-Calipari eras may make it even more commonplace.
As an aside since this section references Little Rock’s Bobby Portis, I wanted to give him a shout out for being a stand-up guy. He was on my flight into Little Rock from Chicago yesterday and delays in baggage claim had folks sitting around for over an hour. Kids were getting restless and he broke out a basketball and started doing passing and dribbling drills with hoards of kids. It was super cool to see.
8. Odds Are Coach Sam Pittman will need some success on the field to be able to start winning on the recruiting front. The Hogs did pick up commitments from 3-star defensive lineman Trent Sellers and 3-star Warren, AR wide receiver Antonio Jordan over the weekend. This puts us at 15 total commitments for the 2025 class.
While we rank 30th nationally, we are 12th in the SEC.
What is even more disheartening though, is we continue to lose in-state recruiting battles. The state of Arkansas doesn’t produce that many highly ranked high school recruits, so it is very important for us to be able to get commitments from the best the state has to offer. Currently, Rivals shows the state with only 5 4-star athletes. Of those, only 1 (QB Grayson Wilson of Conway) is committed to play for the Hogs. We’ve lost Bryant RB Daniel Anderson to Notre Dame, Bauxite Athlete Marcus Wimberly to Oklahoma, and Marion Guard Darius Curne to LSU. Even 3-star Beebe RB Kiandrea Barker is committed to Penn State.
We do still have a shot at Parkview Safety Omarion Robinson (who, in my opinion, is the best player in the state). His coach Brad Bolding has coached D1 athletes like the late Altee Tenpenny, receiver KJ Hill, running back Juan Day, linebacker Martrell Spaight, defensive lineman Zach Stadther, quarterback Landon Rogers, tight end Erin Outley, and running back James Jointer. And Bolding thinks Robinson is the best player he’s ever coached.
Robinson primarily plays safety but also returns kicks and moonlights as a wide receiver, running back, and wildcat quarterback. He’s won back-to-back state championships, and he has 23 scholarship offers and has narrowed his top 5 down to LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Oregon.
Although Sam Pittman has been known as an excellent recruiter his entire career, he’s going to have to find a way to raise more money for NIL deals for his players and win more ballgames to be able to compete for talent.
Parting Shots
I recently listened to the Dartmouth College commencement address given by tennis superstar Roger Federer. He shared a stunning stat: in his 1,526 singles matches in his career, he won almost 80% of the matches. But how many points do you think he won in those matches? Only 54%.
Federer said, "When you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot. You want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That to me is the sign of a champion. The best in the world are not the best because they win every point. It's because they know they'll lose, again and again, and have learned how to deal with it."
That’s such great advice for a Hogs fan.