The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is stuck in the past
Eric Musselman and the Hogs could use an infusion of modern shot selection for the rest of the season
When Eric Musselman came to the Arkansas Razorbacks, he was touted as a man who brought a wealth of NBA knowledge and experience. He was billed both literally and figuratively as a son of the game. A self-professed film junkie who ate, slept, and breathed hardwood highlights.
I still believe all those things are valid for the University of Arkansas head man. The problem is an apparent disconnect between a coach who obsesses over sets run by the NBA’s modern-day savants and the offensive product players put on the court each game.
In his book The Midrange Theory: Basketball’s Evolution in the Age of Analytics, Seth Partnow writes the following:
Good process and analysis can serve to tilt the odds in one’s favor. Basketball analytics isn’t always about having the answers, it’s about asking the right questions so that you can be on the right side of those odds often enough to come out ahead in the long run.
It’s time for Musselman and the Arkansas Razorbacks basketball team to start asking the right questions about their offensive approach—questions I’ll ask today.
Question Number One: What elements of a modern offense are lacking for the Hogs?
The midrange is dead.
Those four words have sparked endless controversy and debate—and misunderstanding, frankly—around the most efficient ways to score points in basketball. To hear a casual fan tell it, players should never take midrange shots. That’s not 100 percent accurate. If you can score points from the midrange at a high clip, every analytics guru would encourage those shots.
Still, the rim or three adage holds some water for most offenses at every level. Unfortunately, the Hogs are severely lacking here. Per ShotQuality,1 Arkansas is 293rd in college basketball in “Rim and 3 rate,” i.e., the percentage of shots that are either taken at the rim or from three-point range.
To simplify: the Razorbacks still rely on midrange shots as a high percentage of their offense compared to other teams in college basketball.
Question Number Two: But the Razorbacks are hitting those mid-range shots, right?
Unfortunately, no. If you’ve been watching games, though, that piece is prominent.
Over 20% of Arkansas’s offense comes in the mid-range. However, the Hogs only score 0.77 points per possession (PPP) from the midrange. (So, to score two points if they only took midrange shots would take Arkansas almost three possessions.) That’s their lowest PPP of any shot type that ShotQuality tracks. It also ranks 191st in college basketball.
Those are team figures. Maybe individuals are performing better in isolation.
Question Number Three: Which Hogs are the worst culprits?
I’m going to be honest with you. When I initially read which Razorback basketball players struggled the most from midrange, I did not believe my eyes.
All seven of the least effective plays run for individuals are possessions that result in midrange shots. Six of those seven belong to two players: Devo Davis and Tramon Mark. Here are the specific figures:
Davis off the dribble long midrange jumper: 0.66 PPP
Davis off the dribble short midrange jumper: 0.66 PPP
Mark off the dribble short midrange jumper: 0.74 PPP
Mark off the dribble long midrange jumper: 0.75 PPP
Mark pick and roll (ball-handler) off the dribble long midrange jumper: 0.76 PPP
Mark pick and roll (ball-handler) off the dribble short midrange jumper: 0.78 PPP
They aren’t the only culprits, though. No single player on the team is above the 50th percentile in efficiency from the midrange.
Notably, “Midrange” Mark’s most effective shots this season are three-point opportunities.
Question Four: What does this mean for Musselman and the Hogs?
It feels like you could roll a 20-sided die, and whatever comes up will likely be an area where the Hogs need to improve offensively. Rebounding could be better to get extra possessions. The spacing is far, far below average. This squad is generally bad off the dribble and turns it over too frequently. But all those things fall under the umbrella of an offensive scheme, and this year’s team feels like something out of a time capsule.
Arkansas fans could get over a stagnant, isolation-heavy, midrange-reliant offense if it worked. (Truthfully, we’ve done it for several years already.) When the team struggles, the limitations in Musselman’s scheme are laid bare like Greco-Roman wrestlers.
The frustrating thing is that while the Hogs aren’t elite at the rim or from three by even the most liberal definitions of the word, they are undoubtedly better, and being even slightly better might have made a difference in several of their losses.
The most important question is if the Arkansas offense can join the year 2024 before it’s too late.
All data was as of 1.12.24. All data comes from ShotQuality