The game was lost, but hope is not
John Calipari and the Razorbacks still control their tournament destiny
There were plenty of moments in Arkansas’s 69-61 loss at Texas A&M yesterday that left Razorback fans frustrated. D.J. Wagner passing to Adou Thiero while Thiero was looking at the Arkansas bench, which led to an Aggie leak out for an easy layup, pretty much signifies the day.
John Calipari’s team went to College Station and committed the highest number of turnovers in SEC play and their second-highest total of the year. The Aggies scored 22 points off Arkansas turnovers, which is hard to overcome in a game that was otherwise pretty even statistically. The Hogs meanwhile, got just seven steals, which I’ve told you is going to have to be a factor for this team to win.
Arkansas's chances of getting back in the win column in the next game also look ominous, as the next contest will be on the road against the Auburn Tigers.
Even with all that, you’ll get zero worries out of me. By beating LSU on Wednesday Arkansas did exactly what it needed to do this week to still be in control of their tournament destiny.
Where do things stand
Arkansas is currently 15-10 (4-8) in conference. It’s not a great record and certainly well short of where we thought the Hogs would be based on the Calipari hype. But that record is a tad deceiving.
As of 8:00 Saturday night, KenPom currently ranks Arkansas as the 39th-best team in college basketball, while the NET Rankings have the Hogs 41st. Those aren’t world-beating statistics, but they are squarely tournament bubble figures.
Arkansas still has plenty of time, and I’d argue a favorable schedule, to improve those numbers. Here is Arkansas’s remaining schedule, with the KenPom and NET Rankings of the opponents in parenthesis:
at Auburn (1, 1)
Missouri (15, 19)
Texas (34, 33)
at South Carolina (78, 91)
at Vanderbilt (40, 42)
Mississippi State (30, 30)
Every Tom, Dick and Harry that covers college basketball will tell you the same thing: the SEC is good enough that a team with a 7-11 conference record should still make the NCAA tournament. The Razorbacks must go 3-3 over their final six games to hit that mark.
When you break it down like that and look at the schedule, does that seem unreasonable? Assume Auburn is a loss. We’re talking about 3-2 over the last five. Given that their three toughest games over that stretch are all at home, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Hogs go 5-0 over those final five games. Three more wins is not out of the question. Talk about controlling your fate. The Hogs just have to win the winnable ones to reach the tournament.
And that’s precisely what they did this week.